研完报告Research Report海通國際240ct2024HAITONG泡泡玛特Pop Mart International(9992HK)三季度业绩大超预期，潮玩龙头重回千亿市值Wildly Outperformed 3Q Results Delivered,HKD100bn Market Cap Regained观点聚焦Investment Focus雄持忧于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)优于大市OUTPERFORM事件：泡泡玛特于10月22目发布3Q业绩预告，收入同比增长现价HKS75.20120%-125%,其中中国内地收入同比增长55%-60%，港澳台及海外收入同比增长440%445%，业绩远超预期，中国内地各渠道中，零售店同比增长30%-35%，机器人商店同比增长20%-25%，抽盒机HTIESG4.035-5.0同比增长55%-60%，电商平台及其他在线平台同比增长135%-140%(其中抖音平台同比增长115%120%、天猫旗舰店同比增长155%-市值HKS100.99bn /US$13.00bn160%,批发及其它渠道同比增长45%-50%。Us$46.25mn1,343mn增强。①加大推新力度：2024年7-9月，公司发售（以全渠道最48%1年股价最高最低值早发售时间为准)常规手办盲盒各10/15/9款，高于2023年同期HKS75.20-HK517.18注：现价HK5520为2024年10月23日收盘价的各9/11/9款（根据公司官方公众号测算）；且在P组合和产品形式上均有所创新。其中新艺术家IP包括7月CHAKA-逐光精灵系-Price Return-MSCI China列，8月星星人-我们都是星星人系列，9月POLAR-你好！宝拉|第一季系列；新授权P包括光与夜之恋、原神、无双镇、一人之310下；新产品形式包括迪士尼/皮克斯P下三个POP CUBE系列。②240新品类持续拓展：公司长期致力于让潮玩概念突破手办等传统品170类的限制，为P带来更多表现形式，除了早已取得优异成绩的100MEGA产品线外，近期推出的毛绒品类随产能的稳步提升已逐渐爆30发出越来越强的势能，6月上市的积木产品线未来也有很大潜力，除此，明年大力发展卡牌、饰品、甜品等品类也将持续提升P势能，讲好P故事。③海外需求反哺国内。由于泡泡玛特在海外市9场，尤其是东南亚地区的火爆，部分地区出现块货现象，代购需求促进部分国内销售。除此，随着泡泡玛特P的文化属性逐渐凸0ct-23Feb-24Jun-24显，以礼品方式传输中国文化的需求也贡献了部分销售。海外业务：亚洲表现强动，歌美扩张提速。目前海外门店主要分1mth3mth12mth绝对值87.1%238.0%布在东亚港澳台和日韩地区，但东南亚和欧美区域扩张在逐渐提绝对值（美元）51.7%879%2403%速。公司计划在2H新开30-40间门店，远超1H的12间，并重点34.7%68.1%215.7%布局北美和东南亚市场。7月5日泰国曼谷第6店开业，首日营业额破千万，同月意大利米兰、荷兰阿姆斯特丹、印尼首雅加（公RmbmnDec-23ADec-26E司海外百店)、法国卢浮宫、美国旧金山等门店也相继开业。8月Dec-24EDec-25ERevenue6,30112,42016,20619,96629日，台北Zsiga主题店同时也是中国台湾第11店开业。9月28Revenue (+/97%30%日，澳大利亚第十店，黄金海岸店开业。Net profit1,1912,8513,8794,951叠利预测与估值：参考公司30业绩预告，我们上调24-26年预期Net profit (+/-139%36%28%Diluted EPS (Rmb)2.14291收入各20%/23%/24%至各124/162/200亿元，同比各增长3.72GPM651%662%67.1%97%/30%/23%,我们上调24-26年经调净利各22%/27%/30%至各ROE16.1%31.5%344%348%28.5/38.8/49.5亿元，同比各增长139%/36%/28%；经调净利率各P/E231823.0%/23.9%/24.8%,我们给予公司25年25倍PE估值，对应目标市值1077亿港元，上调目标价65%至80.9港元（对应汇率为风险提示：经济下滑，行业竞争加剧，门店拓展不及预期，原材料价格上涨。胡佳晴Rebecca Hu◆一4 Yiteng Li在立李Liting Wangre becca.jl.hu@htisec.comyt.li@htisec.comliting.wang@htisec.comhongke.li@htisec.com本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动，关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免贡声明，请参阅附录，(Please see appendix for English translation of thedisclaimer)泡泡玛特(9992HK)维持优于大市2021202220232024E2025E2026E44.946.263.0124.2162.119977872836597130.523.227.626.538.6107.3134.061457.561365.166267.1YoY (pct)(2.0)383.811销售货用（亿元）11.114.720.036.647.557.9销售货用率(%)24.631931829529.329.0行政货用（亿元）5.67.111815.419.014.91129.59.59.510.05.711.928.538.849.522323.023.924.8YoY pct)654110FY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24EFY25EFY26E收入（亿元）124.2162.1199.7103.1131.9160.6204%229%24.3%毛利（亿元）80.91073134.066.586.5106.621.6%24.1%25.7%651%662%67.1%64.5%655%6.4%0.7%经调净利润（亿元）28.538.849.523.430.638.021.7%26.8%30.2%23.0%23.9%248%22.7%232%23.7%0.2%08%11%表3可比公司估值情况（倍，20241023）市值EPS(LC)PEPEGLCUS$mnFY24EFY25EFY26EFY24E FY25EFY26E24-26EFY24EFY25E FY26E华特迪士尼公司96.6175,2385.05.25.819.518.716.72.319181.8孩之宝HASUS71.09,9023.94.34.918.414.52.27832P3,094.013,348154.4159.8172.220.019418.03.518181.78136P3,974.06,635124.2141.2151.032.028.126.32.779716.6多美林式会社7867JP3,807.02,330173.7201.3222.921.918917.11.4151.322.420.318.52.2312.92.7泡泡玛特9992HK75.212,9972.43.24.131.623.218.20.7735.64.5注：1.7832、8136、7867期末为3月，D15期末为9月，HAS、9992期末为12月，2.7832、8136、7867为FY25-27数据，240ct2024⊕泡泡玛特(9992HK)维持优于大市财务报表分析和预测20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E6,30112,42016,20619,9660.892.142.913.72营业成本2,437(4,330)(6,562)5.807.199.041141毛利润3,8648,09010,72913,4041.482.384.1245861.3%65.1%66.2%67.1%0.280.720.99127销售货用(2,005)(3,664(4,748)销售货用率%31.8%29.5%29.3%29.0%P/E76.2131.6023.2318.20(1540P/B11.669.417.495.9311.2%9.5%9.5%9.5%P/S14.407.255.56451营业利润1,2313,2664,5715,897EV/EBITDA44.9220.2214.1410.56营业利润率%19.5%263%28.2%29.5%0.4%1.1%1.5%19%EBIT1,2313,2664,5715,897EBITDA1,9084,1845,7847,502毛利率61.3%65.1%662%67.1%所得税327(1,366)经调净利润率18.9%23.0%23.9%248%有效所得税率%23.1%215%22.0%22.0%16.1%31.5%344%348%1,1912,85138794,95112.8%25.4%28.1%289%18.9%23.0%23.9%24.8%投资回报率11.0%24.6%274%28.2%20232024E2025E2026E营业收入增长率36.5%97.1%30.5%232%5,9817,17310,07712,836EBIT增长率111.0%165.4%39.9%29.0%应收款项3216996321,009经调净利润增长率107.6%139.5%36.1%27.6%存货9051,7051,2961,940其它流动资产468468468468资产负债率22.0%23.6%20.5%20.4%流动资严合计7,68310,05312,48116,260流动比率4.434.155.015.066537287918463.913.454.494.461161008571现金比率3.452.964.043.99使用权资严7268509791,123其他非流动资产790790790790应收帐款周转天数14.915.015.015.0非流动资产合计2,2852,4682,6462,830存货周转天数132.7110.0100.090.09,96912,52115,12719,09152.750.050.551.1短期借款367366420479应付账款4457417751,06220232024E2025E2026E其它流动负债9221,3151,2981,672税前利润1,4163,4974,8376,211流动负债合计1,7332,4233,213非现金支出7429171,2121,605长期租赁负债426499574659非经营收益(306)752(1,064其他长期负债292929139493(359非流动负债合计455528604688已付所得税(244)(262(1,0642,1882,9513,0963,9021,9913,1745,4786,090111234资本公积4,4384,4384,4384,438(1,9843,3315,1207,58110,7391,39311912,9042,7597,7709,5601202015,179期初现金6852,0783,2696,173101010102,0783,2696,1738,93212,52115,12719,091备注：表中计算估值指标的收盘价日期为10月23日资科来源：公司年报，H而240t20243泡泡玛特(9992HK)维持优于大市APPENDIX 1SummaryPop Mart released its 3Q performance update on Oct 22d.Revenue up 120%-125%YoY.Mainland China up 55%-60%YoY,while HK,MO,TW,and overseas up 440%-445%YoY,significantly exceeding expectations.For domestic market,the company strengthened its depth and breadth of IP operations by intensifying new productlaunches and expanding into new categories.Further supported by overseas demand feeding backinto the domestic market,the trend of growth was expected to be maintained.As for overseas markets,strong performance in Asia and acceleratedexpansion in EU&US contributed to the growth.We project the revenue in 24-26 to be RMB 12.4/16.2/20.0bn,and adjusted NP to be RMB 2.85/3.88/4.95 bn,respectively.We value the company by 25xFY25 PE,with a TP of HKD 80.9(HKD/CNY=0.9).We maintain outperform rating.Risks:Economic downturn,industry competition intensifies,store expansion under expectations,raw material price hike.240ct2024APPENDIX 2ESG CommentsEnvironmental:company keeps improving its business and enviromental related problems.Social:company keeps improving its business and enviromental related problemsGovernance:company keeps improving its business and enviromental related problems.运营动运营动运营动运营动运营动运动运动5腊录APPENDIXIMPORTANT DISCLOSURES我，胡佳璐，在此保证()本研究报告中的意见准骑反肤了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人现点，并且()我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或现点直接或间接相关：及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证养，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益，我和线的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (i)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report;and that I (induding members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subjedt companies discussed.I and my household,whom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 businessdays after the researc report is published.我，李一腾，在此保证()本研究报告中的意见准骑反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（阳）我的报酬中澄有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的其体建议或见点直接或间接相关：及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任付财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewswhom l have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of theissuer that I review within 3 business days after the researc report is published.我，汪立亭，在此保证()本研究报告中的意见准骑反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人见点，并且()我的报酬中设有任付部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或现点直接或间接相关：及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证养，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益，我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (i)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report;and that I (induding members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.I and my householdwhom I have already notified of this,will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the researc report is published.我，李宏科，在此保证()本研究报告中的意见准骑反肤了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人现点，并且()我的报酬中澄有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或现点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证养，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任饲财务利益，我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和成对本研究中的特定股亲或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸，就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的拔露事项（以下拔露不能保email to ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed).司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市，授资者应仔细阅读m的评纸定义，并且H门基于各自情况（比如授资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素，优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数支化不大，基准定义如下，根措6Ratings DistributionPrior Full QuarterUnderpertormeutHaitong Intemational uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover toResearch contains more complete information conceming the analyst'sentirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings (or research)should not be used or relied upon as investmentadvice.An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on中considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stock's total retum over the next 12-18 months is优于大市优于大市expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as91.4%indicated below.Neutral:The stock's total retum over the next 12-18 months is expected tobe in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,asindicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distributionrules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months isexpected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows:Japan-TOPIX,Korea-KOSPI,Taiwan-TAIEX,India -Nifty100,US-SP500;for all otherChina-concept stocks-MSCI China.中性918%78%35%4.4%*在每个评纸美别里授资银行客户所占的百分比，上述分有中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评纸，买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨格在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对叁准指数支化不大，基准定义如下，根搭FINRA/NYSE的评纸分有规则，我们会将中性评纸划入持有这一类别，卖出，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数联格在10%以上，基准定义如下OutperformNeutralUnderperform918%78%35%4.4%0.0%BUY,Neutral,and SELLin the above distribution correspond toour current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.BUY:The stocK'stotal retumover the next 12-18 monthsisexpected toexceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stock's total return over thenext12-18 months is expectedtobe in line with the returnof its relevant broad market benchmark,asindicated below.Forpurposesonly of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stock'slisted region are as follows:Japan-TOPIX,Korea-KOSPI,Taiwan-TAIEX,India-Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks-MSCI China.薄通国际非评熊研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根搭估值和其他指标对股票进行持名，或者叁于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格，这种持名或建议价格并非为system employed by HS differs from that used by HTl and as a result there may be a difference inthe HTIand HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100)Index:HTIs Q100Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks arecarefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HSA-share team's bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.第一条义利(5G)数搭系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称本公司"）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准喷性及完整性不作任何保证，对公司的评估结果仅供参考，并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，色不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的低携，本公司不对任何个人或机构授资者因使用本数搭表第三条本数搭版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利，未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数搭中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数搭进行修协议的约定执行：若本免责声明与其他协汉约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准，status.The contents of the data refledt the judgment of us only on the release day.We have right to update and amend the data and release other data that contains inconsistent contents ordifferent condusions without notification.Unless expressly stated,the data (e.g.financial perfor mance data)represents past perfor mance only and the past performance cannot be viewed as theprediction of future return.can use these data for any profitable purpose.Besides,none of individual or institution can take actions such as 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written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.12Recommendation ChartPop Mart International-9992 HK786552392613j3n-2022May20220ct-2022Feb-2023Jul-2023Now2023Apr-2024Aug-20241.19 Feb 2022 OUTPERFORM at 40.45 target 66.80.2.29 Mar 2022 OUTPERFORM at 31.00 target 49.80.3.20 Jul 2022 OUTPERFORM at 22.25 target 37.60.4.28 Aug 2022 OUTPERFORM at 19.52 target 35.70.5.31 Mar 2023 OUTPERFORM at 21.70 target 25.00.6.24 Aug 2023 OUTPERFORM at 23.60 target 28.00.7.21 Mar 2024 OUTPERFORM at 24.70 target 32.80.8.21 Aug 2024 OUTPERFORM at 41.85 target 48.90.13