Note: The followina is a redacted version of the original report published 6 Mav 2025 [34 pas]Goldman Research>achsGlobal TechnologyRobotax:China's Robotaximarket- the road to commercializationWith 500,0y2030,webelievethequestionisAllenChanglongeralize the rapid pace of+8522978-2930les toallen.k.chang@gs.comceacross largeTier1 cities,GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.Crsretire, and withGovernment and insurancegrowth. Weapath to profitability, modelling positive gross margins in early 2026 for Tier 1 cities.Key factorstoVerenaJengwatch+852-2978-1681rena.jeng@gs.comDecreasingcostsofhardwareandalgorithms:OurforecastforChina'sRobotaxiTAMof$47bnbv2035EvGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.gcostsforfleetimespentMarkDelaney,CFA(212)357-0535.delaney@gs.comGoldman Sachs&Co.LLCUnit economicsturning profitable, encouraging moresueung,CFA+852-297efficient route planning. We model positive gross margin at the vehicleronald.keurothercities.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.vof this report. Investorsshouldcom/ research/ hedge.ntml. Analysts employed byTheGoldmanSachsGroup, Inc
ContributingAuthorsAllenChangVerenaJengMark Delaney,CFA+852-2978-2930+852-2978-1681+1(212)357-0535allen.k.chang@gs.comverena.jeng@gs.commark.delaney@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LC.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LCGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCRonaldKeung,CFAKotaYuzawaLincolnKong.CFA+852-2978-0856+81(3)4587-9863+852-2978-6603ronald.keung@gs.comkota.yuzawa@gs.comlincoln.kong@gs.comGoldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.Goldman Sachs JapanCo, LtdGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.CTinaHouThomasWangEricSheridan+86(21)2401-8694+852-2978-1697+1(917)343-8683tina.hou@goldmansachs.cnthomas.wang@gs.comeric.sheridan@gs.comGoldman Sachs(China)GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCSecuritiesCompanyLimitedBenMillerXuanZhang+19171343-8674+852-2978-1478benjamin.miller@gs.comxuan.zhang@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
GoldmanSachsGlobalRobotaxiTableofContentsChinaRobotaxiTAMSnanshotChinaRobotaxiTAMindetails,GlobalRobotaxiTAM scenarios,(1)Marketsize?700xChinaRobotaxiTAMarowthinthe next10vears(2)Penetration?25%by 2035 tofillthe labour gap of taxidrivers,(3)Elements of success? Technoloav and experience(4)Revenues generation?Up to $31k pervehicle in tier-1 cities by 20351(5)Costs reduction? Down to $19k per vehicle in tier 1 cities in 20356(6)Unit economics? Profit making by 2026E/31E/34E in Tier-1/-2/ other cities(17) Ooeratinaleverace?Increasina operating profits as business scales(B)Dowinsierisk?Profitabityisnstivetocompettion(19)Downsiderisks?Accidents candamacerenutation(10)Where to find Robotaxis? 10+ cities with Robotaxiservices in China(11)Policvoroares?Sunportive policies with more operating areas(12)Insurance support? Stllin early stageofdevelopment,(13)Reasons to use Robotaxi?Anew riding experience with entertainment(14)Future form factors? Without steering wheels, bout with robotic ars, Al and drones15) Future market seamentation? Widening choice of carmodels(16) Potential up-scaling methods? Collaboration with iding pltforms(17) Potential uo-scaling methods? Shared-ownership to encourage adoption(1B)Whattoimorove?Density andfleet coverage(19)What to improve? Cleaning and maintenance(20)...
