Al eats the worldBenedictEvansNovember2024www.ben-evans.com
@wsj.com三WSJARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEFollow"In myOpenAINearly Doubles Valuation tolitetime, I've seen two$157 Billion in Funding Rounddemonstrations of tech thatStartup behind ChatGPTraises $6.6 bllionfrom backers includingMicrosoft,SoftBank andThriveCapitalstruck me as revolutionary.bybeypa Sechoroman eolbow, Tom betan fFlowy and Berthr.In fFolowthe GUI and ChatGPT"ABill Gates. March 2023BenedictEvwns--Novermber2024
ee@wsj.com三WSJARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEFollowOpenAINearly Doubles Valuation to(Microsoft took 20 vears to$157 Billion in Funding Roundreach a $150bn valuation*Startup behind ChatGPTraises $6.6 bllionfrom backers includingMicrosoft,SoftBank andThriveCapitalbybeypa Sechoroman ealbow, Tom betan fFleow, and Berthr.In fFolowA$150bnmarket cap insummer198.2024cdollarnBenedictEvwns--Novermber2024
Huge interestChatGPT reached mainstream consciousness with unprecedented speedAwareness and use ofChatGPTbycountry,May202470°%Used60%50%40%30%20%10%0%DenmarkUSAArgentinaFranceJapanSource:ReutersInstituteBeneditEvans--Noverber2024
Huge interest, limited use so tanGlass half full/ half empty- lots of people have tried it, but few found it useful, so fanUseofChatGPTbycountry,May2024leard ofbut not usedJ0%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%DenmarkUSAUKArgentinaFranceJapanSource:ReutersInstitute
Hugeinterest, limited use so tanEnterprise software takes time, and come with early disappointmentsEnterpriseuse caseadoption rates forgenerativeAl,October2023&February2024Development/Pilat60%MProduction50%40%30%20%10%0%SoftwareCustomeMarketingFinanceITserviceSourceBain
“Wait a minute?"Aninvestment surgeahead of a proven market prompts the obvious questionsSEQUOIA医BCGGENAI:TOOMUCH SPEND,Al's$600BWhere's theValueinAl?Questiontember2021.Ipablished AVs$201.OuChur sew report yeds important rvghts ints wthar Al iosders arv dadirgtoddualsestors aeperfoming,andhow compa
eeeWelcome to the hvpe cvcle?TEGIt always takes time to reach the" Pleacom ofDSLLProductityHare Is a dagram of the Gartner Hype Cycle with the kery pharses labeled. Luat me know lgeChanGPT
Beyond the noise-the next platform shiftAfterthe web and smartphones, all tech gets built around generative AlPCsWebSmartphonesMainframesGenerativeAISQLOpen SourceCloudNovember2024
But everything is wide openWe don't know the answers- we're still workin g out the questionsHow far willHow is thisHowdo wethis scale?useful?deploythis?
How far will this scale?BeneditEvans--Novermber2024
Foundational question: will LLMs keep scalingsWe got these results by using more and more data and compute-will that keep working?ScalingwillSofar:Scalingwillslowdown?Moredata+keepworking?'Just'moremore computeLLMsdosoftware= better results'everything
"Just give vourself the"Idon't know that I wouldoption that what's beenlook at the training trendshappening for six years.and extrapolate three,nowis going to continue'"orders of magnitude aheadblindly from todayKevin Scott, Microsoft CTOSergey Brin
Is it slowing down right now?Asudden bl...
