NOAURAGlobalMarketsResearchGlobal Memory15May2026EQUITY:TECHNOLOGYRealAl boom is here, embrace the new regimeResearchAnalystsAsia TechnologyExpect memory stock re-rating driven by exponentialCWChung-NIHKdemand growth from Allvchung@nomura.com+85222526075Exponentally growing Al-driven demand vs limited memory supplyKorea TechnologyThe memory industy entered a stru cural growth pha se fllowing the launch of ChatGPTEon Hwang- NFIKined by Open.A(unlisteJin December 202, which tiggered considerabe growthinwang@nomura.comh-bandwidth memory) demand. Subsequently, the adoption oGeneration(RAG)and agenticAlapplications has aceleratedYJKim,CFA-NFIKhal servers and SSDs, andiniated atriple memory super-cyalen1@nomura.comle,andSSD)since3Q25,+82237832332d shis fomtraining toward inference workboads, memorynential expansion. This reflects the rapid growth inases in user base, user engagementnce of7.Memory demandofthese variables(10x200x30x10xld ise byseral thousad-fodover the nextfveeve industy suply growthis likelytoremainexover the same period (CAGR of c.30%), raising seriousersunolv can realitical be resolveds atemotina to arrow this widening supply-demand gap troughrchitecture-level optimizations, incduding tecthnologies such as KVelective cache eviction. However, we believe these solutionsading (which offers over100x higher capacity despiteWeanwihil, we belie th se of agentic Alis signifceantyimproving Alproductitywhilee ncease intokenconsumpton Agrnic Alis also,s of semiconductordemand, nctuing CPUs and.However, these developments limately reinforce the usageexpansion of Alservers themselves, thereby driving anotherleg of substantil growth inGPU-and memoy-reaed demand, in ourvew,Fig.1:Memory-stocks foractionungElectronics4,000.0001,819,000(continuedonthenextpage),ProductionComplete:2026-05-1514:17UTCSee Appendix A-1 for analyst cerification, important dis closures and the status of non-US analysts
15May2026Al-based inovations are actually happening and wll reate a self-reinforcing ent of agentic Al could fnally unlock a step-tunction improvementinfemeprepoduciy, Comine reve or esing lsotve and sevice vendosGemini(provided bv GooaleIGOOGLUS.Not rated), andears from theUSD70bn, in our view. Unti7,such forecastsOpenAlistargetinge providers will, in turn.Iot ratedl.Google, andoudinfastucture spending, thereby ceating alt cycle in data center expansion. We believe the trueedented new reqime, including Al robotsn disparities, cross-country gaps,while institutionalless,Alappears to bebeencrossed.Als growth trajectory is,w. I fac,leading Alexperts are ncreasnal essIsucceed, and more concerned about whether Al couleupply shortage to reduce risk premiums and drive re-atingLTAsbetweenmemoryvendorsandCSPs*fomunsuccessfulL TAstuctures seeninal slowdown of memoyprce increases couldstockprices.However, we believe investor,onlywith CSPsbut alsoofminimum contractt commitments apearincreasingly common,rHBM and high-performancememory.Therefore.ors is becoming less dependent ondertying structural ...
