PERRYExpert InsightsWORLDPERSPECIVEONATMELYPOLCYSSUEHOUSERANDCONTRIBUTORS:SARAHKREPS,MILESBRUNDAGE, JAMES D. FEARON, KARLP MUELLER,JANEVAYNMAN,TRISTANA.VOLPESERIESEDITORS:JIMMITRE, MICHAELC.HOROWITZ,NATALIAHENRY,EMMABORDEN,JOELB.PREDDThe Artificial GeneralIntelliaenceRace andInternational SecuritySeptember 2025
For more information on ths publication,vist w.rand org/t/PEA415-1AboutRANDRAND isa research organization hat develops solutions to publi policy challenges to help make communities throughout the worlcure healthier and more prosperous.RANDis nomprofit, nonpartisan, and committed tothe publicinteres. To learnmore about RAND, visit w ww.rand.org improve policy and decisionmaking through esearch and analysis is enabled through our core values ofqualitofinest thouph taf raning rogec seningfindings and recommendations, disclosure of the source offunding of published research, and policies toRAND'spublications do not necessarily reflect the opin ions ofits research dlients and sponsorseRANDCorporation,Santa Monica,Cali,RAND*isaregistered trademark.CowerlustSuper/GettyImagesmited Print andElectronic DistributionRightsThis publication and trademarkfs) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of R&AND intelectual pnoperty ipovided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorikzed posting of this publication online is probhibited; linking directly to its webpagonrand.orgis encouraged.Permission is reauired from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form. any of its research productsfocomnercial purposes For in formation n reprint and reuse pernissions, ist w. rand org/about publishing/permnissonsPE-A4155-1
About This PublicationThe papers in this publication, com missioned by Perry World Houseat the University of Pennsylvaniandthe Geopolitics of AGI nitative within the RAND Technology and Security Policy Center, explore how comptitive dynamics in the pursuit ofartificial general inteligence (AGI) -particulary between the UnitedStates and China-mayshape internationalsecurity and stability. Drawing on expert perspectives from artisficialintelligence (AD) technology, intern ational relations. and national security, the authors contend witwhether the greatest risksstem from the ambiguouspre-AGI period or from the rapid. competitive race itselfand whetherAGI will fundamentallydemocratizedestructivecapabili-controlisillsuited forAGIl, proposinginstad novelgovernancey from civlian applications. Collectivelythan undermines itPerryWorldHousePry Work Houseisacenterforstholatvinarch, internationalexchange,policy engagement, and public outreach on pressing global issuesity of Pennsylvania. Perry World House'smission is to bring the academic knowledge of the University of Pennsylvania to bear on the world's mostpressing global policychallenges and to foster international policy erngagement within and beyond the Penn Loatd in the heart of ampus at 38th Sret and Locus Walk, Pery World Housedaws on theexper tise of Penn's 12 schools and numerous glob...