BCGCOVID-19 BCG Perspectives SeriesFacts, scenanos, and actions for leadersVaccines & Therapeutics OutlookPart I: Timelines and Success Factors26August2020
COVID-19BCG PerspectivesObjectives of this documentCOVID-19 isaglobalLeaders need to drive an intearatedsocietal crisisresponse to navigatethecrisisWe at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak isItis the duty of health, political, societal, and business first and foremost a societal crisis, threateninglives and the well-being of our global communityinterplav of epidemic progression, medical response,Societv now. more than ever, needs to collaborategovernment action, sector impact, and companyto protect people's lives and health, manage midsaction is playing out. This document intends to helpterm implications, and search for lasting solutionsleaders find answers and shape opinions to navigatethe crisis in their own environments. It encourageswe see the crisis manifesting itselfSource:BCG
The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averagedeconomic impact, government policies, and business and public responsesFlattenFightFutureTypialy n th intial hase afer a pandemicFinding naths to collctvl fght the winus,Diseasecontroled throughvaccinelcureloutbreak, the gal sto urgenty Iimit numberestattheeconomy, and supportsociey inherd immunity and treatment within,ofnew cases, especily criticalcarebalancinglives and livelihoodlsustainable medicalcapacies possbleSocialdistancing(lockdown) and partial businessInceasingeconomic actitywith recoveringReactivated economy with stong businessclosures lead to economic recession with a largeGDP, some busihes roperning, and scialrebound andjo growth, socal esticdions,employment impactdistancing on asustainable levelllimited or completely suspended1.Disease progression, healthcare systemcapadity, and response2.Govemnment policies and economic stimulus3.Economicscenarios4.Businessengagementand responsetucguasogAaozozonbuldog5.Publicengagementandresponse,All of theabovefivefactors resultin specific economic and social outcomes in each phaseSource:BCG
Summary snapshot| Restart progression at a glanceAsof21August2020Epidemic ProgressionConsumerActivityBusinessImpactGlobalepidemic snapshotMobilityStockmarketperformance23.0M255K7.4M799K4MayMayJulyMonthendvs.02Jan20JuneJuly#ofMobility'-27%-19%-19%S&P500#of#of-7%-5%0%casesdailycases!fatalities(manthvs.JanEurope42%-25%-17%FTSE10020-20%-19%22%MayJulyAugJapan-26%-13%13%CHNSSE-3%7%14X164128Month-onAmericas1.0xmonthDenesioarus-829-69%76%Volatility Index(S&P500)*22x2.4x20xgrowthofEurope1.0xtravelticketsK92%-88%86%newcases?Asia'1.7xbooking*(YoY)InternationaltradeChina-37%45%26%EconomicImpactSalesTradevalue13us-28%NA(YOY)UK-25%-14%NAGDPforecasts(%)Retailgoods3%8%9%4China-9%3%autouK-11%1%202010-8642024682%10China-1%2%102%Basaling.1.3%i,
Executive Summarv ICOVID-19 BCG PerspectivesEarly sians of slowing alobal case arowth visible in Auaust 2020; however some countries experiencina substantial resuraenceCurentdevelopments or a COVID-19 acone moving at turbo charged pace, 12-18 mon...
