BCGCOVD-19BCGPerspectivesFacts, scenarios, and actions for leaders,StateoftheWorldDecember 2020
COVID-19BCG PerspectivesObjectives of this documentCOVID-19 is aglobalLeaders need to drive an intearatedsocietal crisis responseto navigatethecrisisWe at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is,Itis the duty of health, political, societal, and businessfirst and foremost a societal crisis, threateningleaders to navigate throuah this crisis.A complex,lives and the well- beinq of our global communityinterolav of epidemic progression, medical responseSocietv now. more than ever, needs to collaborate government action, sector impact, and companyto protect people's lives and health, manage mid,action is plavina out. This document intends to helpterm imolications. and search for lastina solutionsleaders find answers and shape opinions to naviaatethe crisis in their own environments. It encouragesthinking across the multiple time horizons over whichwe see the crisis manifestina itselfSource:BCG
The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaqedeconomic impact, government policies, and business and public responsesFlattenFightFutureTypically in the initial phase after a pandemic,Finding pathsto collectvly fighthevius,Disease controlled throughvacine/caure/outbreak, the goal is to urgently limit the numberort society inherd immunity and treatment within,of new cases especially critical care,balancing lives andlivelihoodsustainable medical capacities possibleSocial distancing (lockdown) and partial business,Increasing economic activity with recoverineReactiatedeconomywithstrongbusinessclosures lead to economic recession with a largeGDP,some busines reopenings, and sacialemployment impactdistancing on a sustainable levellimited or completely suspended1.Disease proaression, healthcare systemcapacity,and response3.Economic scenarios4.Businessengagement and response5.Publicengagement and response,All ofthe abovefivefactors result in soecific economic and social outcomes in each phaseSouRce:BCG
Summary snapshot Restart progression at a alanceAsof09Dec2020Epidemic ProgressionConsumerActivityBusinessImpactGlobalepidemicsnapshotMobilityStockmarketperformanceSenOctNoyMonthendvs.02Jan20SepOct68.9M620K22.9M1.6MNoy#of#of#of#ofMobility*uS-19%-23%13%0%11%S&P500dailycases!fatalitiesEurope鄂142627%casesactive casesonthvs.JanFTSE100-23%-18%AugSepOctNovJapan-11%-8%CHNSSE8%10%Month-onAmericas1.0x0.8x1.2x1.7xmonth464%-63%-66%VolatilityIndex(S&P500)122.1x3.0x1.6xEurope1.7x1.9x3.2x1.6xDorgrowthoftravelticke-84%-88%-88%Asia1.4x0.8x1.0xbooking?*(YoY)InternationaltradeChina-1%.8%64%EconomicImpactSales-5%-2%(YOY)-8%GDP forecasts(%)Retailgoods11%11%14%China11%8%200一UK7%
Fxecutive SummarvICOVID-19 BCG PerspectivesDaily new COVID-19 cases are growing, and hospital systems are under pressure; however, veralleconomic recovery and vacine progressis promisingHospital systems are under immenseexposure vulnerable) continue to be most impactedManylarae economies are expedmultiole consumption sectors are back to pre-crisis le...
