BOSTONBOGCONSULTINGGROUPNYCOVID-19Preliminary EconomicImpact AssessmentEstimatingeffectsofCOVID-19onNY'sEconomicOutputNEWYORKSTATEOFOPPORTUNITYAPRIL2020
LEGALDISCLAIMERThe COVID-19 situation is rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. This document represents one scenario based on discrete data from one point in time.Itis not intended as a prediction or forecast about duration of lockdown; peak of viral infections; efficacy of government or health care responses tothe Virus;or other health or socieal impacts, and does not represent an "fial BCG View.) Itisalso not does not constute medical, egal or safetyadvice, and is not an endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such, you are advised to use this document as general guidanceonly in making your own continued assessments as to the appropriate course of action, taking into account local l aws, rules, regulations and orders.
NEWYORKDivisionofBfwartheBudgetANDREWM.CUOMOROBERTF.MUJICAJR.GovernorDirectorof theBudgetApril2020The following preliminary economic impact assessment was compiled by Boston ConsultingGroup(BCG) atthe request oftheStatetoinformouranalvsisoftheworldwideCOVID-19pandemicontheNewYorkStateeconomvandStaterevenuesAswe navicate anunnrecedented nublic health crisis and ensuina economic downtum it is naramount that we excnand aurexpertisetoincludeawidervarietvofideas andconsiderations,AstheState develops olans for re-openina the econom. balandioa oublc he lth with the need to aet New Yorkers back towork, this initialassessment will helpus understandhow those effortswillinterplav with theState.sfinancesThe economy has been hi hard by policies which were necessary to save lives and stop the spread of the vius. TheimpactseffecteverysectorandeveryregionoftheState,andtheroadto recovervwillastthrouahStateFiscalYear202andbevondSFY2022Aboveal,(t remainsabundanty dearNewYork State cannot navigatethis natinal crisison its own and needsfederalfunding support. The modeling performed by BCG aligns with the State,s revenue forecast, which projects arevenueshortfal of $13.3 bilion from the Executive Budget Forecast as a direct consequence of the pandemic.
Thelost revenues would diminishthe State,sablityto,provide services to NewYorkers at a time when they need them most. Injeopardy is funding for health care, hospiais, 12 schols, fist responders, higher education andintfastrocture,as well as supportforNewYork City,counties,towns. and villaes. and the State.snot-for-profit oartnerswhodelivercritical services to the State s most vulnerable populations. We are already taking the first steps to reduce spendingimpacting tens of thousands in the state workforce while planning for further actions. In the absence of federal aid, we wllhavenochoice butto move forward with thesedevastatina and unorecedented reductionsNew Yorkis thefiancialcapialoftheworld and repesents 8%oftoalU.S. GDP. If/New YorkStatedoesnt receveadequate levels offederalfundinaforthepublic and private sectors thatis...
