2026年中国消费行业趋势洞察报告-二季度消费脉搏（英文）优质

30 July 2026China ConsumerChina Consumer Pulse 2Q26: Premium resilience against apersistent weak consumer backdropEuan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.comAneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.comRichard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.comLuca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.comEunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.comCallum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.comYugo Shima+81 3 6777 6994yugo.shima@bernsteinsg.comHao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.comMufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.comMakoto Morozumi+81 3 6777 6972makoto.morozumi@bernsteinsg.comOverall consumption remained under pressure in Q2 despite some improvement in confidenceand inflation indicators, and we continued to see relative outperformance in premium acrosssectors. In this comprehensive quarterly tracker, we analyze key metrics across consumersectors including Apparel, Sportswear, Alcohol, Beauty, Travel, Luxury and Autos, spanningboth mass and premium categories. We also cover the implications for Japanese Consumercompanies.GDP growth moderated to 4.3% YoY in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1, with retail sales slowingto +0.2% YoY despite Consumer confidence indicators gradually improving vs late 2025levels, and positive CPI (c.1%) helping to ease concerns around outright deflation. Premiumand Luxury segments were a relative bright spot, with Premium Beverages recovering,Apparel, Sportswear and Beauty brands outperforming mass-market peers, and LuxuryHotels continuing to outperform. Meanwhile, big ticket goods and autos remained weak, andwe remain cautious for the H2 outlook.Beverages: Moutai’s Fetien wholesale pricing continued to rise in Q2, with a second ex-factory price increase this year indicating that demand remains solid. Fetien pricing is now+13% from the trough, and other high-end variants are now +17-30%. In Beer, overall sell-out value improved materially, up 2% in the quarter compared to -1% in Q1, and momentumin restaurants was particularly healthy at +2%, while the off-trade strengthened sequentiallyto +1%. Moutai remains our top Pick in China Beverages, followed by Nongfu Spring.Apparel and Sportswear continued to outperform broader retail, driven by online. 3P Onlinesales grew 10% in Q2 (vs. 2% for online retail overall), whereas Offline trends remain muted(-3% Pou Sheng, -1% offline retail overall). Nike is seeing positive marketplace sell-through (+3%), an improvement vs. prior quarters, as new product resonates and inventoryclears; however, we expect total growth to remain negative due to sharp reductions in sell-inover the coming Qs. Adidas is growing rapidly (+32%) and gaining share with strong productand brand resonance. Lululemon is seeing marketplace declines (-MSD%) from the recentPFAS controversy which should normalize soon, while emerging bran...