Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 2025
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3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2025This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in late November 2024.
4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary __________________________________________________________ 51. Downside risks have risen _________________________________________________ 72. All eyes on the US _______________________________________________________ 143. Global integration under growing strain ____________________________________ 18Domestic and international policy drivers _____________________________________ 18The challenges of fragmentation ____________________________________________ 204. A turbulent year for trade _________________________________________________ 23Trade-war dynamics set to intensify _________________________________________ 23The shift to services trade continues _________________________________________ 25References _________________________________________________________________ 28Contributors _______________________________________________________________ 33Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 34Cover: Unsplash
5Chief Economists OutlookExecutive summaryThe January 2025 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook launches at the start of what is likely to be an eventful year for the global economy. The outlook remains subdued, with a majority of chief economists (56%) expecting the global economy to weaken over the next year, compared to 17% anticipating improvement. Expectations for global growth are muted overall but subject to significant regional divergence. The US economy is expected to deliver robust growth in 2025, and South Asia, particularly India, i...
