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106893-00001/13170692.2© Centre for Economics and Business ResearchCost to Ukraine of Conflict with RussiaA Cebr reportFebruary 2022

206893-00001/13170692.2© Centre for Economics and Business ResearchDisclaimerWhilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this document, neither Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd nor the report’s authors will be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of the report.Authorship and acknowledgementsThis report has been produced by Cebr, an independent economics and business research consultancy established in 1992. The views expressed herein are those of the authors only and are based upon independent research by them.This report has been funded by the Government of Ukraine. London, February 2022

306893-00001/13170692.2© Centre for Economics and Business ResearchContentsExecutive summary......................................................................................................4Introduction...................................................................................................................61Context and timeline of the conflict ................................................................71.1Economies of Crimea and Donbas71.2Events since 201382Literature review: economic cost estimates................................................ 93Economic cost estimates................................................................................ 113.1Introduction113.2Impact on GDP113.3GDP time series133.4Identifying the counterfactual143.5Aggregating GDP losses173.6Channels of output loss – regions193.7Channels of output loss – wider economic impacts233.8Cross checking the estimates of lost GDP by different methodologies293.9Capital stock losses294Fiscal impacts................................................................................................... 324.1Policy changes324.2The estimated fiscal impact32Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 38Appendix I ................................................................................................................... 40

406893-00001/13170692.2© Centre for Economics and Business ResearchExecutive summaryThis report summarises Cebr’s research into the cost to Ukraine of the conflict with Russiaover the period 2014 to 2020. With regards to Ukraine’s GDP, our central estimate for the losses over the relevant period amount to $280 billion of forgone output1, compared with Cebr’s pre-conflict forecast. This amounts to $40 billion in annual terms or 19.9% of pre-conflict annual GDP.We also present a lower-bound estimate for comparison. This assumes an extreme counterfactual scenario in which Ukrainian GDP would have stagnated in the absence of the conflict. Even in this case, the estimated cumulative forgone output amounts to $191billion or $27 billion in annual terms. This annual figure is equivalent to 13.6% of pre-confl...