南海国际秩序的竞争愿景（英）-国际危机组织-48页会员免费

Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 235 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • brussels@crisisgroup.org Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea Asia Report N°315 | 29 November 2021

Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Imbroglio in Brief ............................................................................................................. 3 A. Variety of Disputes ..................................................................................................... 3 B. Dispute Resolution and Cooperative Regimes .......................................................... 7 III. Arbitration Reverberations .............................................................................................. 9 A. China’s Response ....................................................................................................... 9 B. South East Asian Responses ...................................................................................... 14 C. The Code of Conduct .................................................................................................. 15 IV. Whose Rules-Based Order? .............................................................................................. 18 A. A Community of Common Destiny ............................................................................ 19 B. A Free and Open Indo-Pacific .................................................................................... 20 C. Sino-U.S. Security Dilemma ...................................................................................... 22 V. Great Powers, Great Responsibility ................................................................................. 27 A. Beijing’s Legitimacy Deficit ....................................................................................... 28 B. International Law or Rules-based Order? ................................................................. 29 C. Pushing Back without Pushing Too Far .................................................................... 32 D. Fostering Regional Cooperation ................................................................................ 33 VI. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 35 APPENDICES A. Map of the South China Sea ............................................................................................. 36 B. Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 37 C. About the International Crisis Group .............................................................................. 39 D. Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on Asia since 2018 .................................................. 40...