Bottom line: China’s annual “Two Sessions”, namely the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC) will begin on March 4th and March 5th respectively and will likely last till mid-March. The 2024 Government Work Report which contains a series of economic targets and key policy priorities, and the fiscal budget report will be released during the “Two Sessions”. We continue to expect an ambitious growth target (around 5% of real GDP growth) and more supportive fiscal policy stance (3% on-budget fiscal deficit ratio with RMB 1 trillion central government special bond and RMB 4 trillion local government special bond) this year. Key topics to monitor during this year’s “Two Sessions” include discussions about the government’s “new model” for the property sector, local government financing and fiscal reforms, as well as other demand-side stimulus such as support to consumption. Main points: 1. China’s annual “Two Sessions”, namely the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC) will begin on March 4th and March 5th respectively. Serving as China’s most important annual political event, the “Two Sessions” will discuss and review the annual government work report and fiscal budget report, and release a series of 2024 economic targets. Thousands of NPC deputies and CPPCC members will travel to Beijing and top policymakers will discuss crucial economic and political issues for this year. We summarize a few key things to watch and our expectations for the 2024 Two Sessions. 2. “Two Sessions” usually last for 1-2 weeks, and thus this year’s “Two Sessions” will likely end by mid-March. A few key dates and events to monitor during the “Two Sessions” include: March 5th morning: Shortly after the start of the NPC, Premier Li Qiang will ndeliver the 2024 government work report and announce a series of economic targets and policy priorities this year. Media will likely reveal the draft version of the 2024 fiscal budget later in the day, and the budget report will contain on-budget fiscal deficit ratio, and the local and central government bond issuance quota for this year. We expect the government to set a relatively ambitious growth target of “around 5%”3% CPI inflation and maintain the target/ceiling for this year. An ambitious growth target and unchanged CPI Maggie Wei +852-2978-6962 maggie.wei@gs.com | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 hui.shan@gs.com | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilto...
