China's great Go Global expansion - From peripheral to coreCHINA IN TRANSITIONEQUITY RESEARCH | 14 September 2026 | ��:�4PM HKTThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by nonUS affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Chris Pan, CFA +852-2978-7993 chris.pan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Yuichiro Isayama +81(3)4587-9806 yuichiro.isayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.Jacqueline Du +852-2978-1783 jacqueline.du@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Tina Hou +86�21�2401-8694 tina.hou@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company LimitedRonald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 ronald.keung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.CTrina Chen +852-2978-2678 trina.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Nicolas Yi +86�21�2401-8922 nicolas.yi@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company LimitedChina's nearly 40% share of global markets may be unsurprising after a decade of domestic substitution. But with a sharp rise to an 18% share for Chinese players in ex-China markets, competition is now moving from peripheral towards core market segments of the leading global incumbents. We collaborated globally across 36 analysts using a framework of classic competitive analysis between new entrants and incumbents, encompassing 11 sectors and 40 companies, to ask what the learnings from past global expansions are, and how they help us think about the decade ahead. Three surprising observations: (1) The biggest share gains for Chinese players have been in emerging markets, not the US-China markets which are perceived as the most contested. Chinese industrial products may be more disruptive, but consumer products (B2C) hold the highest adoption rates. (2) While Chinese exports are seen driving material deflation and typically enter at an average 30% discount, prices subsequently rose in 7 of 11 sectors post-entry. Prices tend to hold or rise when market demand and revenues are expanding, and only fall when top-line stress triggers. (3) Capital markets penalize share loss ruthlessly, but incumbent market cap loss isn’t always reflected in gains for Chinese companies. From peripheral to core, we expect a more uncertain path ahead: Chinese companies' market shares to rise further to 31% by 2035E, with revenue growth of 3.6x, favoring the “latecomers”. We see a harder path and slower pace, as the competitiv...
