Policy R&s&arch Worki,- Pa.&r11467Growing in China’s ShadowDaisuke FukuzawaErgys IslamajDuong Trung LeAaditya Mattoo Agustin SamanoDevelopment Economics Chief Economist O/ce, Asia &Chief Economist O/ce, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & PakistanSeptember 2026 Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractTe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the fndings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the fndings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. Te papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. Te fndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. Tey do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its afliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy R&s&arch Worki,- Pa.&r 114670is paper analyses how China’s rapid expansion has a1ected growth in other developing economies through the trade channel. 0e empirical strategy is a shift-share design that exploits pre-determined variation across countries in the exposure of their exports to China’s import demand and export supply in global markets, well before China became a dominant trader. 0e paper shows that China’s rising demand for commodities and intermediate goods has had a favorable impact on other developing countries’ growth, while intensi2ed competition from its manufactur-ing exports has had an adverse e1ect. 0e former e1ect is stronger and therefore the net e1ect has been positive for most countries. 0e positive impact is, however, becom-ing weaker as China’s growth slows down, and developing countries’ longer term growth may also be infuenced by the changes in their economic structures induced by China’s trade expansion.0is paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics, the Chief Economist O/ce, Asia, and the Chief Economist O/ce, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan. It is part of a larger e1ort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. 0e authors may be contacted at eislamaj@worldbankgroup.org, amattoo@worldbank.org; and dle@worldbankgroup.org. Growing in China’s shadow Daisuke Fukuzawa, Ergys Islamaj, Duong Trung Le, Aaditya Mattoo and Agustin Samano* JEL Code: E01, E13, F10, F41, F62, O11, O47 Keywords: unconditional convergence, China, export-import similarity, primary goods East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Office, World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessaril...
