2024GlobalOutlookGrabbina thewheel:putting money to workBlackRockInvestmentBlackRockInstituteFORPURLICOSTAIEUITONINTAEUS,CANAOALATINAMESICAHONGKONGSINGAPOREANDAUISTRALLFORINSI.TONAUL,POFESSONA,OUALFEDIESTORSANDQUA
2024outlookIted in greatersa result.ThisisalandinflationPhilippHildebrandJean Boivinthe investing wheel- andViceChairmanHead-BlackRockBlackRockInvestmentInstituteWeiLiGlobalChiefInvestmentStrategist-BlackRockInvestmentIinstituteAlexBraziersistentlyDeputyHead-BlackRockInvestmentInstitutearestill adjustingtoHead ofSustainablee rewarded in theInvestmentResearchandAnalytics-BlackRock Investment InstituteVivekPaulGlobalHeadofPartfolioResearch-ContentsSummaryMegaforces8-10Digitaldisruption89Setting thescenew-carbonhave becomeContextisansitionblocks, in ourview.everythingAfragmenting心024 InvestorsneedtotakeaStructuralshiftworldchtotheirportfolios.This isThemes5-7Focus-Global心anagingmacrodiversificationecontrols.It'simportant tobeFocus-RealSeratein takingaportfolorsk,inourview, andSteeringportfolioassetsto deploymore risk over the next yearoutcomesHarnessingmegaTactical playbook13iewssummary14-15FORINSIuTONAL, PROFESSONA,QULIREOIESTORANDQUAUIFEDGLIENTSINOTHGRPERMTTEDCOUNTRES
SettingthesceneContextisStrongemploymentgains..US payrollcthangesvs.Itypicalexpansion,2022-2023and2019-2023everythingCumulativechange(right)1000105(spuesnoy1)s1o1Aedura6ueupMultiale timesin2023,marketthopeshavebeenrevivedthattheU.Seconomycanachieve asoft landing-orinflationgettingback to theFed'8002% targetwithouta recession.What'sfuelinathose hopes?In contrasttoothermaioreconon600103ies.the US.arew at a robust clip in thenfollanchambAnd nearly7 millionaphenomenalpaceofjobs400alliniumadion.Seethechart topright.200101e(chartbelowright):Theeconomy100demic struck Strongjob20222023ngofthoselost.Thelevelofnesctivitv the US. economy has grownbyless..b.utstillclimbingoutofadeeppandemicholeae since the pandemlc. That's wellbebow thexpected pre-pandemic-and wellbelow wherethe(OOT-CE0Z19:)*pu105100even with more muted growth, historically low5Our bottomline:Somethinghas changed-and it's structural in nature.We8th path and got here with more inflation, higherinterests to focus onhowthe economyandmarkets areadjusting to thenewregime.20192020202120222023Adoptingthe typicalcyclicalplaybookmay be misguided.-ActualpavrollsTypical expansionnpdoymotineathofetsthndsesch heuprdhar,Jenany 2022-100 mdhn thelowe dhatry2020-100. Theydbualinesin bolthdhuhomyhadtinued to grow at thea verage rat eobomrved duringU.S.post-1945expeTheHackbarsinthe upperdhatRORPALRLICOSRHBUTOVINTHEUS,CONAOALAINAMEROCLHIONGKONGSINGAUGOREANG)AUSRPALAPORNSITIUNONA,POFESOVAL,OUIFEDNASTDRSNIOULFIEDCLENTSINOTHERERNMITIEICOUVNTHESBIM1223UVN32668143/16
SettingthesceneYield swings on short-termsurprisesStructuralshiftSensitivity ofU.S.10-yearyield to economicsurpries,2003-20230.6Marketshavebeenflip-floppingTheworkforceisgrowingmorebetweenhopesforasofteconomicslowlyinEurope andChina.to, andandinc and fears of vethiacher rates it's oneofseverallong-temm0.4production constraints we thinkwillAIAHSUOSThis has createdvolatlity, as the0.2without sparkingrenewed inflation.Risingproductioncostsin afragmenting world...
