GoldmanEQUITYRESEARCHIJhlv3.202512:10AMHKTResearchSachsNavigating ChinaInternetThe everyday app battle in eCommercefoad/instant delivery TAM. cross-sell & eventual landscapeRonaldKeung,CFANabLL.CStave Qiucha(AabLL.CeonWangSnvabLL.CGolmanSucha(ai)LL.Chaninfond dalivarvlmstant shopoing hascalad back withna ew quaters, ve believethe duration of investmvents this tirne willaxtend for lonnardivan alof the comnaniss are shifinafocusto bacomaChina'sleverydav app'for transaBesides tapping anenlarged Rmib1.5irninstantshoppingTAM where Meituan currently takesthe lead, we believe eComnmerceayers'ambitions are to leverage high-frequency food daliery offerings (GSe Rmb2.4tm TAMIby 2030E, now transacted within theinthenmodels) in cros-sllingto theirlower-frequencyvebenefitstoeCommerceahlightJD could dis-prapartionatelvscaleDAUI/userpurchasea other ransaction dlatfoms civenits fefinvestnents that alesadystarted from 3024 ast year anditbenefitsftrom an improvementofthecommunity aroun buy comastitive landscana Gd iman Sachs dos and e s o busines wit comparies oed in t rserd reports.Asaresut, investors should be aware that thefilm mnayhave a conflict of interest that could affct the abjectivity of this report.Investars should consider this report asonlya single factorinmaking theirinvestmentdecision.ForReg.AC certification and atherimportant disclbsures, see the Disclosure Appendix, ar go to wwvw;gs.comi/esachihedae html.Analysts employedbynonl/Saffilitesare not registered/qualifiedas research analysts with FIlNRAin the U.S.
GoldmanSachsNavigatingChina IntTableofContents3卫PMSummaryContextualizinathelatestnumbers/recentdevelopmentsWe estimateenlargedRmb2.4tmnfooddelivery/FRmib1.5tmninstant shoppingTAMby2030EYattheulimate coalismore to becomethe 'everyday app' tor transactions, cross-sellingto cveralleCommerce7 Wa lav aut our refreshed three scenarios in food deliverylinstarnt shopping心Ourestimatesvs.consensus3JD:Themostunder-anpreciated retailer transformation storyPNO):Balativalv lastinvolvedin fooddelivarv comnetition, easier base into 2HAlibaba;:Near-termeCommerce earnings impact, upside from Cloud/ANMaituan:Dafendingleadership withvweaker2Hprofit outok; Instashopping the bright spotDisclosureApoendix3.July2025
GoldmanSachsPMSummaryThe intensity of competition between eCommerce players (Alibaba, JID) and local services leader Mlituan in fooddaliveryinstantshappinghaselevated to@a newylevel/(vwheare we estimate aggregate investrments by the threeaRmb25br/US$3bnhin the.June quartralone),withourestimate offoodeliverylossesfarAlibatba atRmb-41bi/IDaRmt>-26bry{Mituan witha decline inRmb25bn EEBIToverthe next12monthsinourbasecaseUJul2025-Jun20261.Unikepreviousinvestments byAibaba's Ela.me and some of JID's new intatives that were scaled back within afew auatersbelieve theduration of investmentsthis time wilovtandfo.lbowdrivan allof the comaniesare shitina focus to becomChina'sleveryday app'for transactionsaTAMontheback ofnlatform cnbeidieinbitions lincluting Alibaba'srecentlyanouncedRmb5Obndlamedinvastnahigh-requencyfooddeliveryaf...
