保持全球能源转型势头Valerie J. KarplusCarnegieMellon UniversityHarvard Project onClimateAgreementsENERGYFOUNDATION2025年9月12日能源基金会
保持全球能源转型势头ValerieJ. KarplusCarnegieMellon Universitv2025年9月12日
ABOUTTHEHARVARDPROJECT ONCLIMATEAGREEMENTS The Harvad Prjec on Climate Agrerments is a arvad-Univesity-wide nitiaiv sablished in 2007to identify and advance scientifcally sound, economically sensible, and politically pragmatic publicpolicy options fr addressing global climate change. Drawing upon leading thinkers from around theworld, the Harvard Proiect onducts research on polic architecture, key design elements, and institu.tional dimensions ofinternational and domestic dimate-change policy. The Harvard Project is directedby Robert N. Stavins,A.J. Meyer Professor of Energy and Eaonomic Development, Harvard KennedSchool. For more inforation., see the Harvard Proiects website: www. hks. harvard. edu/ hpcalACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheHarvard Proiecton Climate Agreenents is gratefiul to Energy Foundation China for support for thepreparation of this paper and of alarger project exploring the intersection of trade and climate-changepolicy. Information on sponsors of orher Harvard Project initiatives and on programmatic support canbe found on the website.CITATIONINFORMATIONKarolus. Valerie I. " Sustaining the Global Enerey Transition." Discussion Paber. Cambridee.Massachursetts:Harvard Proiect on Climate Aoreements.Sentember2025The views expessed in this publication are hose of he aurthor lone. These views do not necessanlyrefect those of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements; Harvard University; any of the Univerhent schools or programs; or Energy Foundation China. This publication has not underoone formal review and approval. It has been released to elicit feedback and to encourage debate onoublic policy challenges. Copvright belongs to the authorls). Publications mav bedown.loaded for personal use only
摘要高利率、贸易紧张局势和能源地缘政治问题，加之美国气候政策的突然转向，引发了人们对全球能源转型前景的质疑。本文旨在探讨这些新形势对全球各行业推讲深度脱碳技术部署势头的影响。目前，深度脱碳的推动因素在不同行业间呈现出更大的差异化。不同行业实现深度脱碳的赋能要素差异显着;部分行业清洁技术安装成本已与传统技术持平，而另一些行业仍面临巨大资本运营成本障碍或供应链安全问题。尽管专项气候政策仍然重要,但要约持热、还需要关净推动能源转形的事广泛的制度因素解决新能源其础设施建设的瓶颈、构建供应链互信、拓展低成木能源和基础设施项目融咨渠道。不仅是满足近期发展需求的"无悔"策略,还能为未来提升气候雄心创造更多机会并释放更大潜力。1.引言全球能源转型已站在十字路口。许多深度脱碳所需技术的成本,特别是在电力和交通领域，已降至与传统技术持平或接近持平。2024年，91%新投产的公用事业规模可再生能源项目的平准化发电成本已低于最廉价的化石燃料替代方案(Dardour等人2025)。同时,自1991年以来，锂离子电池的实际价格已下降97%(Ziegler和Trancik 2020)。然而，部分国家气候行动的意愿正在减弱(Groom2025:Sabin Center2025）。新兴清洪能源技术的研发和生产集中在少数几个国家,其中中国扮演着至关重要的鱼色(S8PGlobaCommodity Insights 2025)。对供应链地理集中、利率上升以及保护主义贸易政策抬头等问题的担忧,可能会...
