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投行报告-2026Q2中国宏观经济展望:经济仍具韧性(英).pdf会员免费优质

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J.PMorgan07May2026China monthlvdataoutlookEconomy remains resilient, but caution aheadThe Chinese economy has shown continued resilience following a strong 1QmergingMarketsAsia,Economic rising5.0"boyaor6.7%q qsar, amid ongoingtensions in the Midle East.Despiteand Policy Research(2.5%oya vs 39.6% Feb) and a moderation in fixed assetFengZhuinvestment(1.6%oyavs(1.7%ovavs2.8%Feb) in852)28001745outpacingdemand.eng.zhu@jpmorgan.comhova and0.5%m/msaTingtingGeand April Manutremained in mild expansion at 50.3 and Rating Dog PMIrose to a five-vear high at 52.2, with production expanding and new export orders showing recoveryJiayiLi(852)2800-5229ngfang.yuan@jpmorgan.comMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchPMIs(63.7for NBS;sing pressure topassthroughtooutput prices.largelvdrivenbyn stronger thantheme of"newmand and effectivelyincluding the housing sector.n strongertax revenue,e still expectening mav be possibe f risks build upr signal on any incremental easingrade negotiationsrade uncertaintiess from otherced to strengthen self-reliance, tighteruply-chain control, and likely faster strategic stockpiling. Policv emohastfiskews toward manufacturing and investment, with support for the services sectorfocusing on enhancing capacity and qualitySee pace 26foranalvst certification and important disclosures

FengZhu(852)28001745JiayiLi(852)2800-5229AsiaPacificEconomicResearchJ.PMorgang.zhu@jpmorgan.comjiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.comhinamonthlydataoutlookUPMiorganChaseBank.N.A,HongKongEBanch07May2026TingtingGe(852)2800-0143TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comtongfang.yuan@ipmorgan.comTable Of ContentsKey economic statistics.....Chinamacro indicatorheat map. .....China activity indicatorheatmp..Recentpolicy measures(Apr)...........Summary of majoreconomic indicators and foreas.....ManufacturingPMI(Apr)..Industrial production(Apr).Fixedinvestment(Apr)Ratailsales(Apr)....Merchandisetrade(Apr).Industrial profits(Apr).Producerprices(Apr).IHouseprices(April).Housing activities(Apr).Moneyaggregates(Apr)Monevaaareaates(Apr)..Interestrates...Fiscalposition(Apr)-Monetaryconditions(Apr).Currency exchange rateFXreserves(Apr).Manufacturing and industrial activity tracking÷..............Senvicesectoracitytackin......FinancialmarketsLabor market conditions.......Recentpublicationhighligh±s..........

FengZhu(852)28001745JiayiLi(852)2800-5229AsiaPacificEconomicResearchJ.PMorgang.zhu@jpmorgan.comUPMoganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongEBranch07May2026TingtingGe(852)2800-0143TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085tingting.ge@ipmorgan.comtongfang,yuan@jpmorgan.comKeveconomicstatisticsRealGDPConsumerprice:6year-onChinangKongSAR阿乡EuroAreaJapanCurrent accountbalanceGovernmentbalanceChinaiwan,ChinaEuroAreaealGDP.%-choveravearongKongSARalGDP,%-chover1quarter,saargan estimate)EuroArea

FengZhu(852)28001745JiayiLi(852)2800-5229AsiaPacificEconomicResearch,JPMorganjiayi.c.i@jpmorgan.comTingtingGe(852)2800-0143TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comtongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.comChina macro indicator heatmap

FengZhu(852)28001745TPMoroanJiayiLi(852)2800-5229AsiaPacificEconomicResearchjiayi.c.i@jpmorgan.com07May2026TingtingGe(852)2800-0143TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085tongfang...

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