18 June 2026Global MemoryKorea Memory Export Tracker (May): A record high month withearly signs on HBM4 rampMark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.comEdward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.comYipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.comWe track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the May data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link.Overall HBM export grew strongly QoQ vs. Feb, reaching a record high. May datagrew 13% MoM on seasonality & more importantly up 15% QoQ vs. Feb.Data suggested healthy HBM growth for Samsung in 2Q26. Export from S.Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) grew 79% MoM & up 55% QoQvs. Feb. Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to rise by 58% QoQ. It is behind ourestimate likely due to Rubin delay but HBM4 ramp will help 2H26 enjoy acceleration.Export for SK hynix also stayed robust. May export from N. Chungcheong & Icheondropped by -9% from the high Apr base & was modestly down by -3% QoQ vs. a relativelystrong Feb. Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to grow 25% QoQ, slightly behind ourwe forecast.Early sign of Samsung HBM4 ramp. As HBM has much higher dollar value per weight,we track “value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM price change. May“value per weight” grew 30% for Samsung but remained largely flattish for SK hynix, likelyreflecting the ramp of Samsung’s HBM4 rather than a broad HBM price hike. The trend overthe past few months has been generally positive for Samsung but flattish or declining for SKhynix.Data confirmed HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price. Conventional memory price surged, but HBM price, as suggested by valueper weight, largely stayed in the same range as before, especially for SK hynix.Export to Malaysia dropped seasonally but remained at a notable level. The sizefell MoM to US$0.3B in May, mainly due to drops in the export from SK hynix, thoughpast seasonality suggested it should recover in later months. No sign of HBM export todestinations other than Taiwan & Malaysia, and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix wasproducing HBM at a location that we don’t track. Our methodology thus remains robust.Overall May data suggested healthy HBM growth for 2Q26, with a notable sign ofHBM4 ramp at Samsung. Between the two, the data was slightly behind vs. our forecastfor SK hynix & notably slower for Samsung as our model likely may not model the HBM4delay properly. We also maintain that Samsung is improving its position in HBM4 & shouldgain more momentum in 2H26. On the other hand, HBM price being resetting now shouldtrigger an upward revision for 2027.Conventional memory price increase to stay strong in 2Q26. We...
