2026全球奢侈品市场：爱马仕：二手定价追踪报告（英文）-伯恩斯坦.pdf会员免费优质

BERNSTEIN FLASHMAIL2 April 2026Global Luxury GoodsLuca Solca +41 582 723 126 luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comYi-Peng Khoo, CFA +44 20 7676 6822 yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA +852 2123 2628 eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita +44 20 7170 0540 maria.meita@bernsteinsg.comHermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - April 2026We update our secondhand Hermès Birkin and Kelly price tracker to incorporate prices from recent auctions. The underlying dataset isavailable on request.This update includes data from Sotheby’s online handbag auction, held in Paris, that closed on 01 April 2026. Of the 163 lots listed onthe auction, 13 lots were not sold. The auction saw 12 bags fall into our basket: 3 Birkin 25s in Togo leather, 4 Kelly 25 Epsoms, 3 Kelly28 Epsoms 1 Kelly Pochette Swift and 1 Mini Kelly II Epsom.We see resale price premiums rise from 1.2x to 1.6x, between 1Q26 and 2Q26, for our core BIrkin/Kelly tracker. Our expandedtracker, which includes data on the Mini Kelly II and Kelly Pochette, sees resale price premiums rise from 1.6x to 1.8x over the sameperiod. Note that 2Q26 estimates are based on a limited number of handbags - we would not read too deeply into the quarterly figure,for now. On a semi-annual basis, our ‘core’ tracker sees resale premiums at 1.3x in 1H26 vs. 1.5x in 2H25 while our expanded trackerlands at 1.7x, in-line with 2H25.Hermès has experienced significant valuation compression over the past month, valuations are now discounting a ‘Ferrarireset’ (see Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset'). Signs of fading top-line momentum - both on the resale market,as we track here, and potentially on the firsthand market, which we proxy through store traffic trackers (see Global Luxury GoodsMega-transect: Strong Lunar New Year 2026 foot traffic points to a gradual recovery) - combined with downbeat commentary on1Q26E have contributed to a collapse in investor confidence.We believe short-term weakness could well reflect a consumer distracted by a wealth of new creativity at the likes of Chanel and Dior(see Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Chanel's readacross to Hermès), more difficult comps than peers,and possibly a tactical use of inventory. We do not believe that the Hermès growth formula is broken, but acknowledge it is difficult tobe positive on Hermès in the short-term.On the lighter side, we highlight some of the most ‘outrageous’ lots sold in this auction. These include a pair of Hermèscrocodile leather sneakers that sold for €16,640, a Louis Vuitton dollhouse that sold for €30,720, a set of Hermès headphones thatsold for €8,960, and a set of three 7.5 x 8.5 x 2cm Hermès leather charms that sold for €2,560.For more notes in this series, see: Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker, and updates in Sep'25, Oct'25, Nov'25, Dec'25 (with afocus on the Mini Kelly...