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38THE IMPACT OF E-COMMERCE ON THE GERMAN ECONOMYBEVHMARCH 2021

AUTHORSHelge Sigurd Næss-SchmidtBruno BasaliscoNeil GallagherKatrine PoulsgaardMorten May HansenHendrik EhmannLaura Virtanen

PREFACEE-commerce is becoming an increasingly important part of the global economy. The recent devel-opments following the Covid-19 crisis has further emphasised the importance of this means of commerce to ensure economic resiliency.To understand the magnitude and economic impact of e-commerce in Germany, Bundesverband E-Commerce und Versandhandel (Bevh) reached out to Copenhagen Economics to initiate a study of which this report summarises the results. Throughout the report, we dive into the concept of e-commerce to understand how it creates value from an economic point of view. Further, we de-scribe the economic footprint of e-commerce on the German economy and provide perspectives on how e-commerce may develop and influence the area of commerce going forward.This report has been published in an English as well as a German version with small discrepanciesprimarily reflecting language differences and case relevance in an international versus a Germancontext.

TABLE OF CONTENTSPreface0 Executive summary5 1The fundamentals of e-commerce8 1.1 E-commerce explained8 1.2 The e-commerce company10 1.3 Bringing Large company benefits to SMEs12 1.4 Direct-to-consumer sales15 2Channels of economic value creation17 2.1 Economic impact through productivity gains17 2.2 Consumer benefits and welfare gains21 2.3 The case of digital services22 3The economic footprint in Germany25 3.1 A fundamental part of the German economy25 3.2 An increasingly important economic factor28 4The journey ahead31 4.1 The shift towards digital31 4.2 Key developments within the next FIVE years33 References35

LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1 E-commerce illustrated.........................................................8 Figure 2 Stylised illustration of an e-commerce company .............10 Figure 3 Job profiles across 10 German e-commerce companies............................................................................11 Figure 4 B2C e-commerce via marketplaces in Germany ............12 Figure 5 Share of online revenue across online German companies in 2018 ...............................................................13 Figure 6 Stylised illustration of an e-commerce D2C value chain .15 Figure 7 Direct selling in Germany...................................................16 Figure 8 Economy wide productivity and GDP impact of a shift from offline to online commerce in Germany...................18 Figure 9 Illustration of catchment areas across commerce models...................................................................................20 Figure 10 Global music revenue by format, 2000 to 2019 ..............23 Figure 11 The footprint of e-commerce on the German economy in 2019..................................................................26 Figure 12 Direct and ind...