MorganStanleyRESEARCHGLOBALINSIGHTNovember14,202106:00PMGMT2022 Global. Macro OutlookNormalizing but NotNormallobal inflation is strong but should recede to varving degrees next year against slowerUbut still a bove-potential, global GDP growth. Central banks continue normalizing, but less than priced in by markets. Supply-side risks are two-wayMorgan Stanley does and seeks to dobusiness with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Re search As a result, ivestors should be awware that the firm may have a conflict ofthat could affect the objectivityof Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Re search as only asingle factor in making their investmentDarisionFranly st erifiatio and oteimprta disosue, fertothe isc bsueSection, bcatedathend df tiseportAnalysts emplbyed by non U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRArestrictions oncommunications wit h a subject company,public appearances and rading securities held by a re search analyst account
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MoraanStanley|neseanesGLOBALINSIGHTContents5Normaliaing. but NotBack to Normal28India:Buildinga FullyFledgedRecovery17CountrvSnapshots29 Indonesia:It'sBoth AbsoluteandRelative18KevForecasts30 Korea:From Exports toDomesticDemand19Consumotionand InvestmentSpending31 Russia: Inflation and Covid Stllthe Challenge,Forecasts32Turkev:Easing DespiteCPlPressures20 Bull-Base-BearScenarios-DM33Brazil: FiscalRiskExacerbatesStaeflation21Bull-Base-BearScenarios-EM34 Mexco:Hinging onSupplyChains and22 US:The GreatInventorvBuildConsumers23EuroArea:GrowingBackBetter35 GDP Forecasts:Base,Bear, and Bull Scenarios24Japan:EmbarkingonStepsTowards36CPlForecastsBase.Bear. andBull ScenariosNormalization37MonetaryPolicyRateForecasts,25UK:GradualNormalization38GovernmentBudgetBalance andDebtForecasts26Australia:OpeningUp39GlobalCurrencyForecasts27China:TheInflectionPoint40GlobalEconomicsTeam
MoraanStanley|reseaneGLOBALINSIGHTNormalizing but Not NormalInflation overshoot with differential tails: Demand coming out ofhaveheld back growth and pushed up inflation this vear could easilyscleroticsupplychain.Risingcommodtypriceshave boosted inflapersist or worsen. In such a scenaria, we would have notably weaketion, but in our baseline these pricespeak then retreat, easinginflagrowth buthigher inflation, andjudgingfromcentralbank...
