Cm2060 World and China Energy OutookCNPCChinaTopThinkTankCNPC Economics&TechnologyResearch InstituteDecember,2025,Beijing
Foreword中国石油Curentv. the factors influencing energy development are becoming increasingly complexTechnological inovation is riving a susained global economic recovery, accelerating the growth of global energy demand. The drivers of oil demand are undergoing fundamental shifls, naturalgasdemand is exhibiting robust growth momentum, which demonstrates the remarkable resilience of fossilfuels.Although the overarching trend of clean and low-carbon energy transformation remains unchangedmajor-power relations have shifted from cooperative competition to strategic rivalry. Energy hasevolved from a comerstone of cooperation to a key arena for contestation, rising the priority ofensuring energy security and casting significant uncertainty over the outlook for energy transition.Considering this, the 2025 edition of the report has reconfigured three scenarios to bettercharacterize the impact ofexternal factors on energy development
Three Scenarios for the 2025 Energy Outlook中国石油ScenarioKey FeaturesThe widening divide in political and economie copenation among maior nafions coupked with theChasmfragmentation of enerey ind ustry chains and supply chains, has heightened challenges to energy securityScenarioChina'sgrowing energy self-reliance leverages local resourees to align energy security with the transitionGlobal geopolitical conflicts, technological rivalries and tradeharriershavebecomethe nevnormal,Baselineprompting nations to advance energy transitions while bala ncing security and transformationScenarioenergysystem, and progressing its energy transition in accordance with itsestablishedpace.hasbeen restored, fostering an inclusive and open cooperativeCooperationframework. Policy coordination and technological in nov ation are driving the energy transitionScenarioBuilding onits clean energy leadership, Chinais setto be a leading driverofthe globalenerey transitionanlo and Coope rafion scenaribs shall hereatier be re fered to colledively as the three scenarios'
World Energy OutlookGlobal Energy Development AmidstTurbulent Change
1.Energv Demand Continues to Grow at a Robust Pace中国石油Economic develonment drives robust growth in enerey demand. Over the next decade, global energy demand is projected toincrease by an average of 230 Mtoe annually, matching the growth rate of the past two decades. By 2035, total energy demand isexpected to reach 17.6 billion tons of standard oil equivalent, marking a 15% increase from2025O Looking further ahead. global enerey demand is set to rise by more tham 30% in the long term. Under three differenscenarios,energy demand is projected to maintain an upward trajectory, reaching between 20.2 and 21.3 billion tons ofstandard oilequivalent by 2060-representing a growth of30%to37%comparedto2025levelsWarld arimarv enerey demand under different scenarios, 100MtoeEnerey...
