J.PMorganAsiaPacific EquityResearch14December2025Global Memory Market2026 outlook: Disinflation continues with Al inferencepick-up and supply constraintsAddressinga key investor concerm; new ceapacityin 2027 won'tbend theTechnology-Semiconductors,tight SD. Investors are concerned that the greenfield fabs in 2027E andJayKwon4caccelerating technoloev mi@ration mav trieer DRAM oversunpl Based on(82-2)758-5725: weexpectDRAMbit supply growth toour bottom-up capacityjay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.comtangnanSecries farEas)Limte,Soulbeshv of bitdemandyears(figure 3-4)due to highererencing demand(3x memorySangsik Lee585146ver demand upside to moreklee@|pmorgan.comrganSecaurites(FarEas)Linited.SeouleenB2BeelayYKamath1-22)61573764.kamath@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedrgingpricingHarlan Sur1-415)315-6700an.sur@jpmorgan.com.P.MorganSecuritiesLLClightthatthecurrentcvclewill bethelongestand We have witnessedaseriesing in natural capacity.and there isalackWegross capex spending growth+6%/+6%inFY26E/27E),last five years'average at both very recently towardsm TPU is likelyanto note that tight HBM S-D playsacapacity comeback to conventional DRAM. Aitively influences enterprise SSD TAM expansiont mid-400EB) and content upgrade (JPMe:Al server caryingSee pace 33 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosuresUP Mogan des and seestodobuseswthcom ries oed its eseactn epots. . esut nvestos shouldbe awareththe firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report Investors should consider this report as only a singlewWw.iomorganmarkets.com
06ce0er20J.PMorganJay Kwon-5725jay.h.kwon@lpmorgan.comInvestmentrecommendations. Weexpect ASPhikes-driven EPS upgrades for memoracross Asia/U.S. in the near-term. Asinvestors have kept fairly highexpectationve on HBM TCB supply chain Hanmi/coveredbythefollowinganalysts:SEC/SKH/NYTby.JayKwon.MUbyHarlanSu:.ASMLbySandeepDeshpandeTBL/Advantestby Mio Shikanai, Winbond by.Jimmy Huang, Hammiby Sangsik Le,and
06000er200J.PMorgan-5725jay.h.kwon@ipmorgan.comInvestment SummaryMemory market cap nearing US$1trn; What's next?As we have highlighted inour previous GMM report(link),memory stocks have surged meaningfiul i the past 3M nearing USS Itrn TAM. The CSP-dtriven memory upcyclecontines to drive memoy TAMhighe, and webelieve tatCSP-induced memory SIDghtess both conventional and HIB M.) wl aise memory ASP sigificanty in the nearerm and sustain the mid-term upward rend. Looking ahead, we believe investors willdebate whether the memory up-cycle wil ontinue into 2027 or not post multiple newcapacity investment plan announcements from suppliers. Compared to 2026, theS/IDimbalance gap could narrow in 2027, however, we continue to forecast an undersupplycenario based on our bottom-up capacity/ceapex analysis. While the pace of memory price growth may slow, we believe that the upward direction willcontinue andrecommend investors focus on the longevity of the up-cycle. Using our Market CaptoTA...
