BERNSTEIN2 December2025SOCIETECENERALECROUPMelinda Hu+85221232643ChinaConsumerPop Mart InternationalLimitedFrankieFong82637RatingUnderperformPriceTarget9992.HK225.00HKDPop Mart Consumer Survey: Are its core consumers sustainablecollectors or transient trend chasers?Investor perspectives on PopMart's customer base remain sharply divided.SomCloseDate2Dec2025view the company's~59millionreportedmembersasevidenceofastrongcollector9992.HKClosePrice(HKD)218.80PriceTarget(HKD)225.00of transient rend-dfiven purchasers whose engagement wllerode asviral momentumUpside/(Downside)嘻bleonactualbehavioral pattens,wesurveyed52-WeekRange339.80/79.50-850 respondents across China toquantifythe distribution betweendurable colectorsASIAX1,601.15for, engagementdepth,spendingFYEpecDivYield0.4%customer base is predominanty ovelty-driven with temporary engagementrather thanMarketCap(HKD)(M)293,836,and growth depends on continuous fresh releases. The keyEV(HIKD)(M)254,621PerformanceYTD1M6M12Mnentum,with144.1(1.3)(4.9)136.9ASIAX(%)25.0(1.9)18.323.944,61%female), but39%beganpurchasingwithin the0.7(23.2)113.0o had purchased beyond two years, providing minimal evidencedcePerformance,1YRthan5items,80% ownunder 11iterbual spending concentratesbelow￥500(69%)translatingtspending rather than high frequency routine.ates portfolio concentrationrisk, with novelty9992.HK-ASIAX.LABUBU drives38%>of acquistion,nearly 4xany secondaryPs.Among allrespondents. 29% never bought other IPs despite exposure, indicating single-characterlyalty wulnerable to abandonment.Visit motivations priritze browsing interestingdesigns(4.42)overIPrelease tracking(3.13)or series completion(1.88), confirmingtrafficdepends on continuous novelty rather than collection-building.ReportedEPSF24AF25EFinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRValuationMetricsF24AF25EF26E9992.HK(RMB)235.1ReportedP/E(X)92.727.721.4PEGReported()0.50.10.7Source:Bloomberg.BernsteinestimaSeethe DisclosureAppendix of this reportfor required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherFirstPublished:02Dec202513:41UTC CompletionDate:02Dec202513:41UTC
2December2025Spendingintentionsshowmodest growth expectations with meaningfulchurnrisk, drivenmorebyengagementerosion,61%hexpectto increasespending,26%an to decrease spending, while 13% plan complete exit within twelve months. Growthconcentratesinmodest10-20% projections(47%)ys.39% anticipating509%-+expansion.hongthose reducing spend,engagemewornoff,losinglPinterest,blind ox fatiauel collectively represent-509% of motivations vs. 309% citing price sensitvityFor those increasing,newreleases dive 39%, discovering newlIPs motivates 26%h, andcollectioncompletionaccountsfor24%-indicatingexpansiondependsonPopMart'sexecutionrather than naturalengagement deeoeninaactivitybutcreatesavailabilitySouirchaseswhil 459%substitutewithin ecosvstem. Interestinaly, thereis heaxy relance oncross-IP substitution (29.79%) whenLABUBUisn'tavailable, customers arent developing authentic mult-IPpreferencesburather acceptingavalable alternatives. Blind box format retains 659% positivesentiment,investment ImplicationsWeratePopMartunderperformCHINACONSINED
2December2025DETA...
