ResearchReportRANDTOBIASSYTSMAQuantifvingAl'sEconomic PotentiaGrowth Differentials Between Assistive and AutonomousDevelopment Scenarios
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About This ReportThe analysisin this report models the economic implications oftwo contrasting boundaryscenarios for artificial intelligence (AI) development: restricting Al to purelyassistive tools thataugment hum an productivity versus en abling agents that ca autonomously perforn tasks at least a wellas homans and repliae hemnsdlves. The Agent Worldscenariorepresentsthe porentialofartficial generalinteligence(AGI) capablities, whereas the Toal Worldscenaridccialized systems that enhance human productivitying at the intersection of technologypolicygrowth modd and MonteCarlo simulationsagents could resultin the economyrage, than limiting Al to tols would. Thissto make Acent World economies nearly four times larger by 2045AlthoushtheAoent World scenario assumes successful resolution of AI safetv and alionmentTechnoloavandSecurityPolicvCenteRAND Global and Emerging Risks is a division of RANDthat deliversrigorous and objectivepublic policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security. Thiswork was undertaken by the division's Technoloov and Security Policy Center which exoloreshow high-consequence, dual-use technologies change the global competition and threat environment, then develops policy and technolog options to adrance the security of the United States its aliesand partnes, an d the world. For more information, contact tasp@rand.org,FundingThe Geopolitics of AGiI Initiative is independently initiated and conducted within the Tech...
