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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2026OCTResilience Under Strain, Urgent ChoicesINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2026OCTResilience Under Strain, Urgent ChoicesINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND©2026 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-22905-507-9 (English Paper) 979-8-22905-484-3 (English ePub) 979-8-22905-383-9 (English Web PDF)Disclaimer: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 28, 2026. The views expressed in this publica-tion are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2026. World Economic Outlook: Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices. Washington, DC, October.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201Email: publications@IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.orgInternational Monetary Fund | October 2026iiiAssumptions and Conventions viFurther Information viiiPreface xForeword xiExecutive Summary xiiiChapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1A Split View of the Global Economy 1Recent Developments: Resilient but Uneasy 2The Sources of Resilience 3The Limits of Resilience 7The Outlook: Divided amid Crosscurrents 8Risks: Narrower Margins, Larger Stakes 15Policies: Agility under Constraint 18Box 1.1. Where Did Displaced Trade Go? Evidence on Trade Reconfiguration and Export Resilience 23Box 1.2. Risk Assessment Surrounding the Baseline Projection 25Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Real-Time Impact of Geopolitics on Energy Prices 31References 45Chapter 2. Navigating a Shock-Prone World: Lessons from Cost-of-Living Crises 47Introduction 47Cost-of-Living Crises: A Primer 49Anatomy of Cost-of-Living...