J.PMorganEconomic ResearchNovember29,2021SpecialReportGreater China 2022 EconomicOutlookMainland China: The choice between pace and structure ofgrowthTable of contentsOur2022 growth forecastis4.7%,likely below the government'sMainland Chinar The ahaice between pacegrowth target The change in policy regime to focus on multi-dimension highHongKang$SAR Incompleterecoverywhiequality grow th implics no reversalin housing policy, deembracingGBAcarbonization or techregulation,TJaiwan: Domestic demand topicx upsteamin·Counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy is unlikely to provide a2022meaningful stimulusaRisks arise from uncertainties in the property market outlook, pol icy response function, labor market conditions. local governmententitiesand US-China relationshinHong Kong SAR: Incomplete recovery while embracing GBA GDP growth may moderate to 2.9%y/yin 2022 afterthisyear'srebound,with an incomplete recovery and7%-pts persistent output gap from the pre-pandemic trendHIBOR wil follow suit if the Fed iftof starts inSept'22;housingprcsoul remainsable with modest gainso Innovation and green finance in focus to strengthen Greater BayAreaintegration:Taiwan;Domestic demand to pickunsteamin 202Taiwanhave grown about 20% since the pandemic; exportgrowth is likely to sette around mid-single digits in 2022as globalstic demand to pick up steam asvirus drag fades, withexporhoom fee ding hrough to household income;, weorganChaseBank,NA,Honginlation tostayabove2%in4Q21 andGraceNgverageat 1.9%yoy2800-70020.h.ng@jpmorgan.commics are conducive to monctary policy nor-PMorganChaseBank,N.A, Hongank to raise policy rates for the first time in 1lTingtingGe205organ.comeMorganChaseBank,NA,HongKongwww.jpmorganmarkets.com
PMorgan ChaseBank,N.A,HongJ.PMorganTIngtingGe(852)2800-0143inZhu(852)2800-7039tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comNovember292021GraceNg(852)2800-7002grace.h.ng@|pmorgan.comMainland China: The choice be-Assuming that the government maintains similar separationbetween macro and indusry policies as observed in 2H21tween pace and structure ofour growth forecast for 2022;stands at4.7%(Figue1.2),which we think willundershoot the government's growth*Our 2022 growth forecast is 4.7%, likely below thegov-just their policy responses is a key risk factor. In additionernment'sgrowth targethousing market outlook, labor market conditions, possiblehangeinpolicyregime to focus onmulti-credit quality deterioration in local goverment-related entisdimension high-quality growth implies no reversal in ties, as wellas the US-China relationship willal afect ourassessment of China's economic outlook in2022r-cyclicalfiscaland monetary policy is unlikel:a mcaningful stimulusa uncertainties in property market out-RealGDP,%dhangeresponse function, labor market conditionsConsumptiorowernment enties and US-Chinarelationstip2023sumerprices, %ayatn-firs-out.G FCO vamtage in 2020 wasre-%Dec/Decberformance in 2021(Figure 1.1).Govemment balance,%ofGDParters of 2021, the economy continued toMerchandsetadebalance(US$brn)entia...
