2026新能源车四季度展望-中信期货

风险提示：本报告中发布的观点和信息存在分析可能不够全面的局限性，仅供参考，不构成对任何人的投资建议，您应自主决策。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Risk Disclaimer: The opinions and information in this report are subject to limitations and are for reference purposes only. The report shall not be considered as investment advice to any person. Investment decisions shall be made independently. All investments contain risks, and shall be treated with caution. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026-10-19 New Energy Vehicles Outlook in 2026Q4 新能源车四季度展望 Abstract 摘要 Domestically, the tapering of policies combined with tax rate adjustments, along with a slowing macro economy recovery and weak consumer discretionary confidence, have put overall pressure on the domestic passenger vehicle market. Export performance has consistently exceeded expectations, with strong overseas demand driving China's NEV export volume to new historical highs. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have heightened global energy price volatility, accelerating the global energy transition process and further reinforcing the logic of NEVs replacing traditional gasoline vehicles. In summary, it is predicted that global new energy vehicle sales will reach 24.67mn units in 2027, representing an 11% YoY increase; corresponding battery production will reach 2219GWh. Risks: Geopolitical risks; Tariff and policy adjustments; Export performance falling short of expectations. 国内方面，政策退坡叠加税率调整，同时宏观经济复苏节奏放缓、居民可选消费信心偏弱，国内乘用车市场整体承压。出口端表现持续超预期，海外旺盛需求推动我国新能源汽车出口规模再创历史新高。中东地缘冲突持续发酵推高全球能源价格波动中枢，加速全球能源转型进程，进一步强化新能源汽车对传统燃油车的替代逻辑。 综上，预测 2027 年全球新能源车销量达 2467 万辆，同比增长 11%；对应动力电池产量达2219GWh。 风险因素：地缘风险；关税与政策调整; 出口不及预期。 何颢昀 He Haoyun 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03100810 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021074 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights CITIC Futures International Research 中信期货国际化研究 2 Content 目录 1. New Energy Vehicles: China's Market Policy Tapering, Overseas Market Landscape Diverging ............................................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Review: The macro economy was weak, but overseas exports showed strong resilience. ................ 4 1.2 Outlook: Policy Adjustments Set the Tone for Domestic Sales, Exports Support Sector Growth ....... 7 2. Europe: Energy Disruptions Catalyze Demand, Tariff Disturbances Intensify ......... 8 3. Other Markets: Emerging markets experienced a comprehensive surge, while the US market lacked momentum .............