www.research.hsbc.comDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Play interview withJames Pomeroy and Stephen Bramley-JacksonFuture CitiesMulti-AssetApril 2021By: James Pomeroy and Stephen Bramley-JacksonGlobalThematicFuture CitiesThe changing shape of urbanisationCities are facing a different future after the pandemic……as a greater appreciation of space, quality of life and remote working changes their allure……meaning new challenges for transportation, buildings usage and urban design
1Multi-Asset ● Global | ThematicApril 2021As part of HSBC’s new approach to investing in today's world of disruptive, complex and rapid change, we apply our multi-asset and geographical reach to understand the big events unfolding today and their investment implications through nine themes – one of those is Future Cities. Please see New horizons for 2021, 17 March 2021, for more details.The game has changedThe pandemic has changed many people’s view towards how attractive cities are as places to live, work or socialise. With offices, bars and restaurants having experienced government enforced closure in cities across the world, it’s no surprise that the draw of large urban areas has diminished – as memories of mass transit and tightly packed streets have lost their allure in the midstand aftermath of a health crisis. In the coming years, some of this will reverse. People will return to offices – it just may not be as often as before. City centre entertainment venues will still draw people in – be it sports stadia, theatres, top restaurants or group activities. There will still be demand for city centre living, too. In the developed world, more than half of jobs may be difficult to do remotely, and even more in the emerging world. Being close to a place of work is still important for health workers, baristas and trades people whose work can’t be done from a home office. Not the death of citiesFor these reasons we don’t think urbanisation trends are heading permanently into reverse. In much of the emerging world cities are still going to be a draw – for jobs, for amenities and for a better quality of life. At least while only a fraction of jobs are in professional services or other remote-friendly roles and computer and internet access isn’t as widespread, urbanisation rates should continue to creep up from very low levels today.In the developed world, the change may be subtler than many have made it out to be. While the draw of living close to an office may be lower for many people than it was back in 2019, the likelihood is that the pandemic accelerates the growth of suburban areas, towns and smaller cities. People like being near things. This means that while urbanisation in terms of mega citi...
