GoldmanSachs高盛全球投资研究2022市场展望:"不适"的上行空间:离岸市场重回超配高盛中国市场策略2021年11月刘劲津KingerLau,CFAGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LC852-2978-1224kinger.lau@gs.com付思SiFu.PHDGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.852-2978-0200si.fu@as.com投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阀:www.ps.com/resarch/hedae.himl.
Goldman2022年核心展望SachsGDP growthRealGDPgrowth4.8%in2022Total returns16%/13%forMXCN/CSI300in2022(LOC):Indextaraets105/5500forMXCN/CS1300EPSgrowth79,/7%/,forMXCN/CS1300in2022/41.0C)1294/1294forMXCN/CS1300in2023/1.00Valuation14.5x/15.0x taraet fP/E forMXCN/CSI300bvend-22FlowsUIS$75175bnNothSouthboundflowsOverweightChina(Offshore)SingaporeTaiwanRegionalChina(A)IndonesiamarketsUnderweightMalaysiaAustraliaOverweightAutosConsDurablesMediaChinaRetallIngSemis~sectorsRealEstateUnderweightBanksMaterialsTelecomThemes"CommonProsperity"ProfitableGrowthinInternetGrowth overValueRisksPropertyCreditUSRatesUS-CN TensionInflation/StaaflationSource:Goldman Sachs GlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch
Cma六张图概括2022年中国股票市场主要观点SachsWeforecastChinatogrow4.8%in202,WeforecastMSCIChinatoreach105byWe seethe potential for valuationtothe lowest on recordoutside of crisls vearsend-22, translatingInto 16%potentialexpand/recoverin202.aspolly easesprice returns from currentlevelsGSmacroforecasts-MKCN-RHSMKCNIn20222.37.84.8-3.4Europe6.5522462.32.8JapaniSAsiaPacific6.35.4-3.26.0吩oWorldWordex-China5.4Sowe:GoldomanSathsGhbl InvestmntReardSowce.MSCI., actSet,ColdmanSadhs Ohbal lnvestmentReseardWe forecastUS$75tbn for bothNorth-andBuyingStructuralPolicyGrowth,andallocationrecommendationsbut-of-favor InternetGrowthin 2022ncevs.MDXCN(rebased)groups十0SChinaoffshoreintemetCAGRGSCommonPrespelty'porticio120Souroe:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestrmentResearclGlobalInvestment Research
Goldman宏观周期:我们的经济研究团队预计2022年中国GDP增长Sachs4.8%,这是危机年份之外的历史最低增速201920202021F2022FGDP% yoy6.02.37.84.8DomesticDemandPP1.76.84.9Consumption%yoy-0.98.36.7Household Consumption,% yoy11.07.0GrossCaoitalFormation% yoy5.32.8划亿性122Net ExportsppExports ofGoods(nominalUSD)%oyoyImports ofGoods(nominal USD)% yoy-2.7.0.6InflationCPI% yoy2.92.52.7CoreCPI%o yoy1.70.71.8PPI%oyoy-0.5-1.84.5OtherCurrentAccount%GDP0.71.91.71.6USDCNY(eop)level6.966.536.356.20OMO7-DayRepoRate%82.502.202.202.20TSFStockGrowth(eop)%810.713.310.510.5AuamentedFiscalDeficit,%GDP11.816.511.012.0Source:Goldman Sachs GlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch
Goldman宏观周期:房地产市场构成显着阻力,但是增长动能将于Sachs2021年四季度开始改善GDPgrowthForecast6.06ppt5.55.05.0HousingcontibutiontoyoyGDP growth5.04.04.53.0Construction3.02ConsumptionRealGDP(yay)2.0Fiscal2.0RealGDP(qoq,saar)RealEstateServicesoz-uer81-I0g1-uer6L-In0Z-10Clz-uerUpstreamEffectszz-uer1Z-IDzZ-IDC6L-uen101.0Total0.00.0GDPgrowth(yoy)-1.0-1.0AveraaeMXCN return202.0(quarterly)05AcceleratingDecelerating0911131531Accelerating10.2%4.8%GDP growth(q0q,saar)Decelerating1.5%-6.8%SourceHaverAnalicsGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearclGlobalInvestmentResearch
Goldman盈利周期:由于利润率假设较为保守,我们的2022年盈和Sachs增长预期低于市场一致预期MSCIChinaeamingsgrowth(%yoy,inHKD terms)Salesgrowth(%yoy)Netmargin(%)25%35%14%MXCNNetMargin20%Cons:30%14%-MXCNSalesgr...
